On January 20th, 2017, Donald J. Trump became the President of the United States of America. To many this past election is a sore subject, and to others this is a symbol of pride. Political parties and groups disagree on whether or not President Trump will change the United States for the better. Since Donald Trump began to run for president, a resurgence in conservative parties and ideologies could be seen around the country. The Republican party and conservative leaders now hold the majority in all three branches of government. We’ve also seen the rise of the Alternative-Right movement, dubbed the ‘Alt-Right Movement’ by its creator, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon. That change has reverberated throughout politics, the media, foreign affairs and the citizens. Specifically, the effects of the presidential election alone demonstrated to us the amount of change that this country was undergoing. Riots were seen on television. Everyday people revealed the discrimination and inflammatory remarks within their hearts. Over 3 million women marched against President Trump on inauguration day in the largest United States protest since the Civil Rights Movement. Many minority and underprivileged communities have been living in fear due to recent changes in legislation in the country. The LGBTQ community is among these groups and many LGBTQ organizations are either unsure of the future or disturbed by possibilities of it. The LGBTQ community is unsettled due to the recent dismantling of their rights across the nation through new legislation and federal budget plans that cut their funding. Interestingly, some LGBTQ communities still stand by Donald Trump and believe him in his promise to preserve the rights of this community. Recently, there has been evidence that reveals that the Republican Party has not been in total agreement on protecting the rights of the LGBTQ community. In fact, some Republicans have even been outspoken about their unwillingness to provide rights to the LGBTQ community. However, in a statement released by The Office of the Press Secretary, Trump has stood by his promise to “protect the rights of all Americans, including the LGBTQ community. President Trump continues to be respectful and supportive of LGBTQ rights, just as he was throughout the election” (Office of the Press Secretary). Conservative legislation and federal budget cuts seen these past few weeks indicate that the President has already failed on his promise to protect the rights of LGBTQ community from his own party after only twelve weeks into his presidency. The political climate in this country is currently disastrous for the LGBTQ community and if they need to plan for the future, otherwise they can expect serious repercussions.

House Bill 2, or ‘The Bathroom Bill’ as it’s called in North Carolina, is the first clue as to how the next four years will weigh on the progress of this country. In North Carolina, House Bill 2 was passed to govern which bathrooms transgender individuals could use. The bill detailed that transgender individuals could only use the bathroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificates. Lawmakers claim that the law was passed in order to protect women and children from transgender persons violating their privacy and spying on them; however, not a single case has risen to support this claim. This claim is based on falsehoods that portray the LGBTQ community negatively. Only due to pressure from the NCAA and performing artists, did North Carolina plan to repeal the law. However, on March 30th lawmakers replaced the ‘Bathroom Bill’ with a deal that further slowed the advance of LGBTQ progress in North Carolina. “Lawmakers in North Carolina on Thursday scrapped the costly and controversial bathroom measure and replaced it with a law that, among other things, banned local governments from passing their own measures to protect LGBT people” (Washington Post). Chad Griffin, President of the Human Rights Campaign stated that “This new law does not repeal H.B. 2. Instead, it institutes a statewide prohibition on equality by banning non-discrimination protections across North Carolina and fuels the flames of anti-transgender hate. Gov. Cooper and each and every lawmaker who supported this bill has betrayed the LGBTQ community.” The Democratic party in North Carolina failed to protect the LGBTQ community from Republican lawmakers and many blamed the Democrats for ‘selling-out’ to the Republicans. This new legislation demonstrates how new discriminatory laws are being passed in the country with no effective opposition to prevent them from happening.

The ‘Bathroom Bill’ wasn’t the only legal matter that made LGBTQ organizations fearful of future legislation. In the 2016 court case of Hobby Lobby vs. Burwell, attorneys cited the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) to justify Hobby Lobby’s failure to provide contraceptive coverage to its employees. “The Court held that the contraceptive mandate substantially burdened the plaintiff companies’ religious beliefs by forcing them to pay for contraceptive drugs the plaintiffs’ owners sincerely believed were amoral” (Columbia Law Review). This court decision made many individuals very nervous, because in a broader sense it could be interpreted in a way which allows individuals to claim religious freedom if they were discriminating a specific group. “One can certainly envision individuals and corporations petitioning for exemptions from numerous types of laws that might burden their religious beliefs, including laws designed to protect LGBT individuals from discrimination” (Columbia Law Review). Many see the RFRA as a possible “license to discriminate” against members of the LGBTQ community, tearing down laws meant to ensure their rights. The Columbia Law review also mentions that religious liberty claims have already started to be used in court by landlords seeking to evict members of the LGBTQ community. The RFRA was successfully used in court to evict heterosexual couples out of their apartments during the 1990’s for not being married, so it could be successfully used in court to discriminate against homosexual couples. Neil Gorsuch, the newly appointed Supreme Justice nominated by Donald Trump, held that “religion provides an essential source of guidance both about what constitutes wrongful conduct and the degree to which those who assist others in committing wrongful conduct themselves bear moral culpability.” He believed that the RFRA allowed corporations to uphold their moral beliefs over the federal rights of individuals. This legal case has essentially opened up a can of worms, which can be used as a means to dismantle the federal rights of minority groups like the LGBTQ community or as the Columbia Law Review calls it, a “license to discriminate”.

The Judicial branch is likely to see a large shift towards a conservative interpretation of the constitution as well. Republican President Donald Trump has the executive authority to nominate the new replacements for any Justices that plan to retire over the next four years, and so far two have already retired. President Trump has recently nominated Neil Gorsuch, who is the subject of much controversy. Focusing on his same-sex marriage stance, I found that many liberals feel that Gorsuch is a threat to the legalization of Gay Marriage in the United States. Time Magazine stated that Gorsuch “would play a decisive role in the future of same-sex marriage in the United States…If he still holds this view, he could join forces with other justices to reverse the Court’s protection of this right.” Based on Neil Gorsuch’s Oxford University dissertation in 2004, these claims are not without merit. In his dissertation he claims,

If the Constitution protects as a fundamental liberty interest “intimate” or “personal” decisions, the Court arguably would have to support future autonomy-based constitutional challenges to laws banning any private consensual act of any significance to the participants in defining their “own concept of existence.” As Judge O’Scannlain queried in dissent in the Ninth Circuit’s proceedings: “If physician-assisted suicide is protected ‘intimate and personal choice,’ why aren’t polygamy, consensual duels, prostitution, and, indeed, the use of illicit drugs?” Justice Scalia raised much the same question in Lawrence , contending that “State laws against bigamy, gay marriage, adult incest, prostitution, masturbation, adultery, fornication, bestiality, and obscenity” are all at risk if we take seriously what Justice Scalia derided as Casey’s “famed sweet-mystery-of-life passage (Neil Gorsuch, Oxford University).

Gorsuch’s dissertation attacks the basis of allowing the people the autonomy of choice in private matters, on the basis that it may lead to a degradation of morality. He even compares gay marriage to beastiality, prostitution, and incest, rationalizing that if one is found legal then the country is at risk of tearing down all laws pertaining to such acts. As Supreme Justice, Gorsuch would have full authority to challenge the ruling of Obergefell v. Hodges, which is the case that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. Supreme Justice rulings on court cases regarding the constitution are never set in stone. In fact, many amendments and rulings have been overturned in the past following shifts in public opinion due to widespread social factors. One such example is Prohibition in the 1920’s, which was overruled just 13 years later following the rise of gangster violence and illegal alcohol operations. Justices overrule court decisions in consideration of public safety and their own interpretation of the constitution. If Gorsuch believes that gay marriage isn’t protected in the constitution or that it is a public safety matter, he can revisit the case. “The balance of the court would almost certainly be tipped in a dramatically more conservative direction, and even Kennedy’s own legacy on equality for gays and lesbians could be in jeopardy” (NPR). Justice Gorsuch replaces Justice Antonin Scalia who died unexpectedly a year ago. Justice Kennedy who plans to retire during Trump’s four year term has protected the rights of the LGBTQ community by arguing in favor of gay marriage. However, once he retires Trump plans to nominate another conservative to take his place; this could jeopardize the progress that Kennedy fought for by pushing the Supreme Court in a more conservative direction.

The LGBTQ community doesn’t just have to worry about discriminatory legislation, they have to worry about being excluded from the 2020 United States Census as well. It was recently revealed that questions regarding sexual orientation were excluded from the final draft of the United States Consensus, essentially excluding LGBTQ groups from identifying themselves. Fox News, which consists of republican journalists, writes that the issue isn’t about whether or not the LGBTQ community receives freedoms and rights. Rather, Fox believes that Democrats and LGBTQ members are driven by money, than the desire for change. “[Money] ultimately, may be what this dispute is really about.  Not about numbers in the census, but the number of federal dollars—a lot of them” (Fox News). This paints the LGBTQ community as a money hungry organization that has no regard for the actual struggles of the LGBTQ people. What Fox News fails to realize is that the Census is about utilizing Federal funds in a effeicant manner, or as Meghan Maury, the project director of the LGBTQ Task Force puts it, “Federal agencies can’t make the right choices about how to allocate…resources if they don’t have a sense of what the LGBTQ community looks like.” However, as Fox News puts it, “the White House determines how the census will be run,” and President Trump has decided to exclude the LGBTQ community from the 2020 Census, yet again denying the LGBTQ community their place in the United States. The Census works to identify and gather statistics about groups in America, which helps the government identify groups that are impoverished and oppressed. As Meghan Maury explained, excluding the LGBTQ community from the 2020 Census bars them from collecting vital data needed to serve their community and to apply for funding. “Gay rights groups said not including the sexual orientation and gender identity subject in the Census and the American Community Survey would deny some government services to LGBTQ Americans” (New York Times). Sadly, this isn’t the only way in which the White House is making it more challenging for LGBTQ communities to recieve funding.

In March, the White House proposed the new Federal Budget plan for 2018. The proposal cuts funding to over 15 departments, including the Department of Health and Human Services, The Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Labor Department. Nonprofits depend on the services of these departments for support in order to serve their communities. They provide nonprofit organizations with vital data, resources, and connections needed to run projects. In some cases they help nonprofits allocate funding or locate investors. As the Social Science Quarterly puts it, “Nonprofits have complex and dynamic relationships with the government at all levels.” Many organizations are fearful that these budget cuts could result in huge losses for specific programs that are designed to protect impoverished individuals within the LGBTQ community. One such organization is The Poverello Center, a food pantry assisting LGBTQ individuals, which will lose a significant portion of its funding due to the Federal Budget cuts. According to the Chief Operations Officer, Thomas Pietragallo,

“We competed for and received a ‘notice of award’ from the Broward County for $780,446. Normally, we would then contract with them for this amount. Instead, they fear what changes might be coming in the 2017-2018 Federal Budget (which has not been decided upon yet by the federal government). Because of this fear, Broward County contracted with us for only half of the amount $337,478 in the “notice of award” which would fund food for people with HIV until August or 6 months from the contract year which began in March 1, 2017.”

Federal Budget discussions are not only making organizations nervous, but local counties as well. If local counties were to suffer large cuts in their spending, then they would have to minimize the grants that they could provide to local organizations. Funds already promised to LGBTQ organizations might not be awarded in full due to the large encompassing changes that the Federal Budget cuts would make.

The Poverello Center isn’t the only organization expected to take huge hits. Donald Trump has recently revealed that a “$292 million cut would hit the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR,” which is the largest global health initiative ever set up to address a disease. (CNN). This news comes after President Trump promised the people that he would not touch PEPFAR; however, the organization is now expected to “begin slowing the rate of new patients on treatment” (CNN). Multiples sources state that the President promised to spare organizations designed to support HIV and AIDS, however two weeks after this statement these organizations were expecting to get ready for serious financial losses. Republicans continue to cut program after program, and the consequences of this have Jeremy Sanders, the co-director of VOCAL-NY, very distressed. “I think that is what everyone is afraid of, that a decrease in a lot of agencies that will ripple down to city and state agencies,..This [budget] cycle will be a death by a thousand cuts.” The LGBTQ community will have to prepare contingency plans for the future if they hope to come out on top over the next four years.

Attitudes towards the LGBTQ community have not been positive among the Republican Party and Conservatives. Former House Rep. Michele Bachmann has been garnering a lot of attention due to her Christian Conservative beliefs in the media. In an interview concerning the ‘Bathroom Bill’ with Jan Merkell, Bachmann revealed that Republicans “just saw no hope that the United States would return to a position of Judeo-Christian morality” (OnePlace). She also stated that the election of Donald Trump is “where God sovereignly, I believe, answered the prayers of believers beseeching him, and he’s given us a reprieve.” Bachmann is referring to a reprieve from legislation protecting the LGBTQ community and their rights. Former House Rep. Bachmann believes that granting rights to the LGBTQ community is amoral and that God personally ensured the election of Donald Trump to grant the people a ‘reprieve’ from legislation protecting people of the LGBTQ community.

Bachmann isn’t the only Republican to oppose gay rights. In fact, at the 2016 Republican National Convention the Republican Party decided on their final party platform: “Traditional marriage and family, based on marriage between one man and one woman, is the foundation for a free society and has for millennia been entrusted with rearing children and instilling cultural values. We condemn the Supreme Court’s ruling in United States v. Windsor, which wrongly removed the ability of Congress to define marriage policy in federal law.” This is alarming to liberals and the LGBTQ community since the Republicans control both Senate and House at this time. Many Republicans have openly stated that they oppose gay marriage, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that a government under Republican leadership would lead to a dismantling of civil liberties for the LGBTQ community. The Republican National Convention platform also included that the ‘Bathroom Bill’ was, “impos[ing] a social and cultural revolution upon the American people by wrongly redefining sex discrimination to include sexual orientation or other categories. Their agenda has nothing to do with individual rights; it has everything to do with power.” This argument is invalid because the “Bathroom Bill” was specifically about the individual rights of the LGBTQ community to use the bathrooms that made them feel comfortable. It allowed for bathrooms and locker rooms to be built to protect the privacy of these individuals. It has nothing to do with power. Mike Pence, the current Vice President of the United States, has garnered much attention from the LGBTQ community. Mike Pence has a long history of opposing gay rights, which can be seen in his past campaign platforms and legislation he has signed. In Congress Pence has fought revisions to the legal status of marriage tooth and nail. He stated, “Let us say ‘Yes’ very humbly today to the marriage as traditionally defined, Let us say ‘no’ to activist courts bent on redefining it” (Congressional Record 14796). Pence was defending H.J. Resolution 88, or The Marriage Protection Amendment, a proposed amendment to the constitution which states that marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union between a man and a woman. When Pence was Governor of Indiana, he once “signed into law a bill that made it legal for businesses to cite religious freedom when refusing service to gay and transgender people, for example a bakery that refused to bake a cake for a same-sex wedding” (New York Times). Businesses in Indiana could now cite the RFRA to deny service to LGBTQ individuals. Pence’s history of defending and passing anti-LGBTQ legeslation demonstrates the conservative ideals present in the Republican Party and in the Executive Branch of Government.

In order to gain insight into why members of the LGBTQ community still believed in the Republican Party, I interviewed Aaron Parnas, a Republican Political Science major at Florida Atlantic University. He assured me that there “has never before seen a Republican President who is as supportive of the LGBTQ community as is President Trump.” Trump has been very supportive to the LGBTQ community in his speeches; however, his actions which cut funding for Pro-LGBTQ organizations and AIDS health services have made liberal individuals skeptical of his intentions. Parnas then made a statement that clarified his point of view on the issue: “It is not the President’s job to single out specific minority groups, but rather to protect and serve the population as a whole”. This statement makes me believe that Parnas expects Donald Trump and Republican leaders to consider the needs of the majority over the individual systemic concerns of the minorities. A survey conducted by the Williams Institute states that only “8 million adults in the US…are lesbian, gay, or bisexual, comprising 3.5% of the adult population.” Thus, LGBTQ members are not the majority, and so when the President promises to “protect the population as a whole,” does he mean that he’ll protect the LGBTQ community as well? United States citizens won’t know the answer to this question until much later into Trump’s Presidency. Right now the LGBTQ community should focus on ways to strengthen their cause and to supplement the lost funding from budget cuts. Many American people are expecting the next four years to pass without a challenge for the LGBTQ community, but evidence does not currently support this belief.

The political climate in this country has begun to move away from American ideals supported by the Democratic Party to opposing American ideals supported by the Republican Party. Under Democratic President Barack Obama, the country experienced a positive change in the liberties and protections granted to the LGBTQ community; however under leadership in an opposing party the country can expect a more antagonistic reaction under the Republican majority. In the American Political Science Review, John Dickinson called this swing in power towards opposing ideals ‘The Law of the Pendulum’ in politics.

“Not long ago, a distinguished political scientist called attention to ‘the law of the pendulum’ in politics. No sooner, he argued, does a broad political tendency establish itself than tendencies of opposite direction set in and gather force until the original tendency is reversed. As applied to relatively short periods of time and to movements which reflect temporary trends, a plausible case can be made out for the law of the pendulum.”

In Dickinson’s journal Democratic Realities and Democratic, he explains that power in the United States swings to the opposing party and that this process repeats itself with time. Currently, the United States is experiencing a swing towards Republican and Conservative control over the political system. “You could just watch the pendulum swing again in real time, from the vision represented by Barack Obama’s eight years in the White House to the wildly different future championed by President-elect Donald Trump” (Time). It is important that we remember that this does not mean that the country will revert back to the extremes of the past or that history will repeat itself. We will not go back to the days where individuals were sentenced to death or prison for their sexual orientation. Progress does happen; the United States has made an unprecedented amount of progress towards LGBTQ rights in the past century. In addition to this, the LGBTQ community can take solace in knowing that the political pendulum will swing back in their favor with time. Hope is still available to them, but they must fight dissenting powers in order to ensure that the protections they struggled for are not torn down in the next few years.

My statements about the conservative mood in this country might frighten or even offend some individuals. My goal is to accomplish neither, but to inspire change within our institutions and organizations. Right now the cards are stacked against the LGBTQ community, and although some may not recognize the signs, times are indeed changing in this country. Republicans hold power in all three forms of government: the executive, judicial, and legislative branches. If Republicans intend to change legislation regarding LGBTQ rights, they can. If these statements frighten you, then take solace in the fact that people do still support the LGBTQ cause. Since Trump’s election, many nonprofit organizations have seen immense spikes in donations. Celebrities and Television Hosts like John Oliver have called on viewers to support organizations and nonprofits that support the LGBTQ community. For example, The Trevor Project, “which provides help to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender youth.” has seen an influx of donations. Mr. Mendlsohn, the nonprofit’s Deputy Executive Director stated that “It’s working…the on-air mention helped sustain an outpouring of donations that had begun in the days after the election” (New York Times). The Trevor Project was $200,000 under budget before the election, but since have started to get back on track. “Over the last week, the project has received more than $165,000 from donors in 20 countries, and signed up nearly 1,000 new supporters to donate on a monthly basis” (Business Insider). The LGBTQ community isn’t the only community to receive more donations, Women’s rights advocates, The American Civil Liberties Union, and Planned Parenthood have all received an influx of donations. These organizations are receiving funds because many American people believe that these nonprofits need the support of the people more than ever, and they aren’t wrong.

The political climate in the United States has always had a monumental impact on the rights of its citizens. The LGBTQ community is no exception and currently we are seeing a climate that is not beneficial to its growth. The LGBTQ community is not asking for rights that impede on the rights of others, they are only asking to share the same rights. The LGBTQ community needs public support more than ever due to the shift in the political scales, and that is why advocacy for these groups is so important. Positive advocacy through celebrities, politicians, and everyday individuals can help ensure that the rights to the LGBTQ community are not taken away from them. The next few years may weigh heavily on the LGBTQ people, but support is out there, whether it be from local organizations, like The Poverello Center, or initiatives, like the Trevor Project. It is also important that individuals understand that hope is out there. Everyday people are showing their support. Hundreds of organizations across the nation are planning events, marches, and undergoing projects in order to show that this isn’t the end for LGBTQ rights.

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